Why does summer beat ski season?
Because the valley's summer demand is broader than its winter demand.
Winter brings skiers to a defined set of mountains for a defined activity, weather-dependent and concentrated into weekends and school holidays. Summer brings hikers, families, climbers, swimmers, drivers doing the Kancamagus, and people who want a base for a week rather than a weekend. That's a wider audience booking longer stays.
Fall foliage produces a genuine third peak in October, but it's short. The window is a few weeks, and it moves depending on the season.
Rental listings also compete differently across the year. A property without ski-in access is at a disadvantage in February and at no disadvantage at all in August.
What does the swing mean for underwriting?
It means an annual average is close to useless on its own.
A listing averaging $42,842 a year sounds like a steady $3,570 a month. The actual pattern is closer to $7,758 in August and $1,454 in April, and your mortgage, taxes, insurance, and heat are the same in both months. The question isn't whether the year works. It's whether you can carry the property through the months that don't.
Three practical consequences:
Build a monthly model rather than an annual one. Map projected revenue against fixed costs month by month and find the trough. That's your real capital requirement.
Reserve out of the peak. August and July income has to fund April and May. That's a discipline problem more than a math problem, and it's where a lot of first-year owners get into trouble.
Be careful with lender math. DSCR loans underwrite against property income, and a ratio built on a smoothed annual figure hides the shape entirely. A property that services debt comfortably on paper can still leave you short in the spring.
Before the seasonality math, the zoning question. Give me a White Mountains town or an address and I'll pull the current ordinance language. Two business days, no obligation.
What is mud season, and how bad is it?
Locally, mud season runs roughly April into May, after the snow goes and before the trails dry out. Skiing has ended, hiking hasn't started, and many valley businesses cut their hours or close.
The $1,454 April figure reflects that. It isn't a slow month in the ordinary sense. For a short-term rental it's close to dead, and it lasts long enough to matter.
Some owners use the window for their own stays, maintenance, and turnover work, which is a sensible use of a period that won't earn much regardless. Just note that blocking the calendar for personal use also pushes down your reported occupancy, which is one reason published occupancy figures for this market vary so widely between platforms.
Does property size change the seasonal pattern?
It changes the amplitude. Rabbu's Conway data shows six-plus bedroom units averaging $133,771 annually against a market-wide average of $42,842, driven by group travel.
Group bookings concentrate around holidays, ski weekends, and summer weeks, so larger properties tend to have sharper peaks and comparable troughs. The upside is bigger and the carrying cost through April is bigger too, since heating a six-bedroom house through a New Hampshire winter isn't cheap.
How should I read published occupancy figures?
Skeptically, and as a range.
For Conway in 2026, AirDNA reported 47% occupancy and Rabbu reported 34%. Both are describing the same town in the same year. The gap comes from different denominators, different listing counts (192 versus 128), and different treatment of owner-blocked nights.
Weight RevPAR over occupancy or nightly rate on their own, since it captures both. AirDNA put Conway's RevPAR at $173. And underwrite to the pessimistic end of whatever range you find.
